杨树冰核细菌溃疡病的流行规律

The Epidemic Law of Poplar INA Bacterial Canker

综合相关性分析和主成分分析的结果、明确了冰核细菌溃疡病发生与环境条件的关系。选出了影响病害发生的主要限制因子：≥１０℃年积温、年平均气温、５月份平均气温、７月平均气温、１月份平均地温、土壤类型、无霜期（霜冻次数和日期）、年降水量、年平均相对湿度。冰核细菌溃疡病流行的时间动态以理查德生长模型为最优生长模型。研究还说明杨树细菌溃疡病属于多循环的复利病害。

Through correlation and main factor analysis, the authors make clear the relationship between the disease and circumstances and select 9 main factors that can restrict the disease's happening. The Richard growth model is superior for describing the temporal dynamics for poplar bacterial canker disease. Moreover. it is also showed that the disease is a compound interest disease caused by polycyclic pathogen.