发电量季节周期性预测模型的探讨

Discussion on Seasonal Periodicity Forecasting Model of Electricity Generation

分析了广东省发电量数据特点 ,应用中位移动平均法 ,将其分解成趋势项和周期项 ,提出了乘法模型。预测结果显示此方法简单有效 ,对于季节时间序列的辨识、预测有实用价值。

This paper analyzed the characteristics of electricity generation data in Guangdong province.By median moving average method,electricity generation can be resolved into trend term and periodical term.Multiplication model was given in the paper.Predication results show the effectiveness of this method.The identification and prediction to seasonal time series has pratical value.