中国经济周期的非对称性和相关性研究

A Study of Unsymmetry and Relativity of China's Business Cyscles

本文利用时间序列模型等计量方法 ,对一些主要宏观经济变量序列进行随机分解和相关性分析 ,对经济周期的非对称性和长尾性质进行大量实证检验 ,对一些主要宏观经济变量序列之间的扰动和关联进行了计量分析 ,从中不仅识别了经济波动当中的各种非对称类型 ,而且分析了产生非对称的原因。本文分析得到的一些重要检验结果 ,可以作为描述中国经济波动的重要典型化事实 ,可以用于进一步分析和判断中国经济的运行趋势 ,检验和校正相应的经济理论。本文认为中国经济周期的非对称 ,主要是由固定资产投资、财政政策和货币政策的非对称性造成的 ,而价格水平和总需求等因素却保持了比较明显的稳定性。通过经济周期的非对称分析和经济变量周期成分之间的关联性分析 ,我们也具体地分析了宏观经济政策的有效性。

This paper gives not only an identification of the unsymmetry types appeared during the economic fluctuation,but also made an analysis of the caues of their formation with the help of the econometric methodology such as the model of time series after a random decomposition of some major macroeconomic variable series and an analysis of their relativity have been performed.A variety of empirical test for unsymmetry and the long tail character of business cycles,and an econometric analysis of the upheaval and relation among some major macroeconomic variable series have been done.The important derivatives of this paper can be served as an important typical fact to describe China's economic fluctuation and can be used to further analyze and judge the trend of China's economic operation,examine and correct the relevant economic theory.This paper holds that unsymmetry of China's business cycles is mainly derived from unsymmetry of the investment in fixed assets,fiscal and monetary policy.By contrast,the factors such as the price level and demand maintain a relatively clear stability.We also conducted a concrete analysis of the effectiveness,direction and time lag of the macroeconomic policy through an analysis of unsymmetry of the business cycles and the relativity among the cyclic components of economic variables.