国有四大银行不可轻言股改

The State-owned Banks:Is Share Holding Restructuring Necessary?

本文从分析“股改论”所持两大似是而非的理由入手 ,论述了四大国有银行在我国经济宏观调控和稳定区域金融经济中具有不可替代的地位与作用 ,最后就如何做好做大四大行的关键问题作了些探讨。文章认为 :我国“入世”后 ,在经济金融的格局及其发展趋势还不是十分明朗的关键过渡期内 ,坚持四大行的国有性质十分必要。从而 ,提出“以静制动”的策略 ,即 :在“入世”后的八年内 (其中有五年的金融开放过渡期 )四大行不可轻言股改。

This paper discusses two major specious evidences for capital restructuring,and shows that the big four state-owned commercial banks are playing an un substitutable role in macroeconomic regulation and regional financial stabilization.Some critical issues on these big four's performance are also introduced.One judgement is that current ownership of state-owned banks should be kept in a transition period when the economic and financial structure and trend is unstable after the entry to WTO.Therefore,in the following eigth years since China's accession to WTO,the big four is not necessarily to be privatized.