失效率的一种贝叶斯估计

A kind of Bayes estimate of invalid rates

在失效分布未知的条件下 ,利用元件在贮存期内的失效概率都很小、可靠性较高、但可靠性呈下降趋势这样的先验信息 ,给出失效率的一种贝叶斯估计 .假设 0 <p01 ≤ p02 ≤…≤ p0k 作为先验信息满足的条件 ,先求p0k 的估计 ,再求 p0k- 1 的估计 ,依此类推 ,最后求出 p01 的估计 .从而求得所有的 p01 ,p02 ,… ,p0k- 1 ,p0k.

In this paper,a kind of Bayes estimate of invalid rate,with the invalid distribution unknows,is given by a priori information which the invalid probability of the element is very small,its higher reliability has a descent tendency in its storage period.Suppose that 0≤p 0 1≤p 0 2≤...p 0 k-1 ≤p 0 k is a condition that a priori information satisfies,the estimate of p 0 k is given at first,then that of p 0 k-1 ,in turn,at last that of p 0 1 is obtained,and thus 0 1, 0 2,..., 0 k-1 , 0 k are all got.