时率法预测矿产资源量

USE TIME-VELOCITY METHOD TO PREDIC AMOUNT OF MINERAL RESOURCES

本文通过研究铅锌矿床年勘探累计储量和年份两个变量之间的关系,用计算机模拟出最佳的相关曲线,进而对铅锌资源量进行了预测。计算结果是:用 S 型曲线拟合效果最好,铅锌年勘探累计储量和年份之间的相关系数高达0.9764678和0.9612586。

Through the study of the relations between annual explorated reserves and a certain year of a lead and zinc deposit in Yunnan Province,the paper simulates the optimum correlation curve on computer.The time-velocity method was creat- ed firstly by D.F.Hewett in 1929.It is based on the historical data of a deposit without concerning on the real geological conditions and may provide a prediction on the future state of mineral resources.Firstly,the method needs a data prepara- tion that is to get annual explorated reserves year by year through the whole exploration period and then to draw a disper- sal map.Secondly,the method needs to find a optimum curve and acturally find s-shaped curve is optimum.Finally,the selected simulated curve shall be checked and explained. The paper use a lead and zinc deposit in the Yunnan province as an example to predict its amount of mineral re- sources and obtained very effectivel results.The calculated correlation coefficient of total annual explorated reserves and years are O.9.