香港住宅产业发展的系统动力学研究

A System Dynamics Study of the Development of the Housing Industry in Hong Kong

以系统思想为出发点 ,通过建立一个系统动力学模型 ,对香港住宅产业发展这样一个社会济系统问题作些探讨 .致力寻找出这个系统中各类因素的互相影响与互相制约的动态关系 ,并将主要的关系尽可能地作出定量的描述 .经成功构造模型后 ,利用计算机仿真模拟得出政策决策者关心的趋势性结论 .在某个指定的时间区间内 ,这些结论的指导除了会使住宅产业发展迂更明确的方向性外 ,同时也是对政策的一种重要的支持 .用系统动力学方法研究香港城市住宅产业发展 。

Based on the theory of system dynamics and through the use of one of its models, this paper investigates the social-economic issues involved in the development of the housing industry in Hong Kong. This paper aims to identify the dynamic relationship among major inter\|related factors in the system and describes the interactions quantitatively. It illustrates that by establishing and using a system dynamics model and simulation technique we can generate the trends concerned by many decision\|makers. It also demonstrates that the results from the system not only can provide the directions for future development, but also provide important support to decision-makings. The use of system dynamics model in the area of housing development is a new and rewarding attempt.