近30a气温变化对黄河下游凌情影响分析

Effect of Air Temperature Change in the Last 30 Years on Ice Jam Flood in the Lower Reaches of the Yellow River

根据 195 1— 1998年黄河下游代表站冬季气温资料 ,统计分析了近 3 0a平均气温和气温过程变化特点及其对凌情的影响 ,并在分析负气温演变特点及其与凌情关系的基础上 ,建立了气温凌情关系式 ,同时利用 70年代以来气温、凌情资料 ,计算分析了气温变化和其它因素对凌情的影响 .

Based no the data of air temperature of the winter in the lower reaches of Yellow River, we analyzed the characteristics of average air temperature and its changes ,and the effect of air temperature on ice jam floods, and established the relational expression between the air temperature and the ice jams flood. On the basis of analyzing the change characteristic of the negative air temperature and relationship with the ice jam floods, at the same time, using the data of air temperature and ice jam flood, the effect of air temperature variation and other factors on the ice jam flood was calculated and analyzed.