封河预报数学模型研究

Research on Prediction Mathematical Model of Freeze-up of River Ice Cover

分析了河冰水力学、封河机理及影响封河的因素 ,并根据封河机理和影响封河的因素 ,建立了封河预报数学模型 .以黄河内蒙古河段为例 ,率定封河预报数学模型的函数形式并进行检验 ,证明预报模型精度高且使用方便 .

In the upper reaches of the Yellow River where damaging spring breakup ice jams are recurring events, are responsible for the flooding. Freeze-up occurrence condition of river ice cover is one of control factors in breakup ice jam flooding. Present knowledge of freeze-up of river ice cover processes can allow for the development of a deterministic freeze-up prediction model. In this paper, river ice hydraulics, freeze-up mechanism and the factors influencing freeze-up were analyzed, and the freeze-up prediction mathematical model was established. The use of mathematics model to predict freeze-up ice covers occurrence is presented, with an example application for Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River, the results show that the model can be used easily and its precision is high.