摘要
本文分析研究了贵州春旱的大气环流异常特征 ,寻找确定了贵州春早的 6个短期气候预测信号 ,并在此基础上以 195 7～ 1996年作为样本年代建立了春旱短期气候预测模型。预测模型经1997～ 2 0 0 0年为期 4年的独立试报 ,取得了良好效果。
In this paper anomaly atmospheric circulation feature of spring server drought in Guizhou and their forecast signals are analyzed Six signals for short term spring drought forecast are obtained By the use of these forecast signals, taking a pe riod from 1957 to 1996 as a swatch, a short term climatic forecast model of spring sever drought in Guizhou is established With this model, an independent 4 year test forecast of 1997 2000 is made and the results are satisfactory
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2001年第3期33-37,共5页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
贵州科委"九五"攻关项目<贵州短期气候预测业务系统的研究>的一部分 (编号 :黔科合计字 1996 -0 81
关键词
春旱灾害
短期气候预测
贵州
大气环流
spring drought disaster
forecast signal
short term climatic forecast
