青藏高原东部牧区冬季雪灾天气的形成及其预报

The Forming and Forecasting of Winter Snow-Disaster Weather in Easten Pastoral-Area of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

对青藏高原东部牧区 ( 1967— 1996年 )冬季发生的成灾性降雪天气过程进行了较为详细的分析。探讨了北冰洋低压槽、贝加尔湖低压、东亚大槽和南支槽等欧亚大型天气系统活动对高原冬季降雪天气形势形成的作用。归纳出两种高原冬季成灾性降雪天气形成的模型。重点讨论了高原气流波动不稳定对高原波槽形成的量化指标 ,找出了若干高原低温—降雪过程预报的统计关系 。

The forming and forecasting analysis of winter snow disaster weather in the easten pastoral area of Qinghai\|Xizang Plateau(1967\_1996) has been made. The main conclusions are as follows: The forming of snow disaster weather situations over the Plateau is closely linked with the large\|scale weather systems, e.g. the Arctic Ocean troughs, the Baikal lake low pressures, the deep troughs of East Asia and the South branch troughs. The two kinds of concept models are sumed up. The quantitative indexes of air unsteady\|waving are mainly discussed in the Plateau, and some of the statistical relations of the low temperature and snowfall are found. Two actual examples of Yushu and Dari stations are provided that how snow disaster forecast are made. Finally, the constructive suggestions of winter snow\|disaster forecast are presented in the area.