全球热带简单海气耦合模式中的ENSO预报试验

Experimental ENSO Predictions with a Simply Global Tropical Air-Sea Couple Model

利用一个全球热带简单海气耦合模式（GTSM模式），并选取热带三大洋较强的冷暖事件作为预报对象进行了若干预报试验，分析结果发现：在GTSM模式中由于热带三大洋海气耦合通过大气模式而相互作用和影响，使得该模式对于东大西洋和中东印度洋较强冷暖事件的预报能力，较单独大西洋或单独印度洋耦合模式均有明显提高，预报和观测的ATL3、IND3指数的相关系数达到0．5以上的月份，分别达到9个月和6个月左右；而在东太平洋则和 ZC（LDEO1）模式差不多，预报和观测的 Nino 3指数的相关系数达到 0．6以上的月份可以达到15个月左右。

A simply global tropical coupled air-sea model (GTSM) is used to predict the primary strong warm or cold events in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Indian Ocean. Predicted results indicate that the capability of predicted ATL3 and IND3 has been improved obviously compared with the Atlantic Coupled Model and the Indian Coupled Model The leading correlation of predicted and observed ATL3, IND3 exceeds 0.5 to a 9--months lead-time and a 6--months lead-time, respectively. The capability of predicted Nino 3 of the GTSM akin to the ZC model. The leading corre- lation of predicted and observed Nino 3 exceeds 0.6 to a 15--months lead--time.