中国的男性人口过剩──规模、结构、影响因素及其发展趋势分析

Chinese Male Overpopulation——Scale, Structure, Influence Factors and Development Trends Analysis

对中国男性人口过剩的规模、结构、影响因素及其发展趋势进行了标准化分析。研究表明： １９８２与１９９０年男性人口过剩规模与比例已处较高水平．更为严重的是在未来几十年时间内中国 男性人口过剩问题将日渐严重，性别结构因素的影响将逐渐增强，并最终成为男性人口过剩的首要 影响因素，年龄结构与人口规律因素的影响将近年减弱。婚姻市场也因此将受到前所未有的冲击。

According to the standardization analysis for the scale, structure, determinants and developmental trends of Chinese male overpopulation, we concluded that the scale and ratio of ace overpopulation have been very severe in 1982 and 1990, and this problem will be more severe in next several decades. The influence of the sex ratio will be stronger gradually, become the main determinant for the male overpopulation in the end. Meanwhile, the influence of age structure and population law will be weaker year after year, so the marriage market will be impacted unprecedentedly.