摘要
本文用时序分析方法确定出哈尔滨站年径流序列为 MA(0,2)序列;采用相关矩估计建立该序列的随机线性模型是 W_t=a_t+0.3170a_(t-1)+0.3912a_(t-2);通过哈尔滨站实测年径流系列对所建立的模型进行了检验。并预报了1988年和1989年的年径流量。
In this paper the annual radial flow seguence of Harbin Hydrology Station is evaluated to be MA(0,2)Sequence with the method of time Seguence analy- sis,hereby correlation matrix estimation is adopted to establish the random linear madel:W_t=a_t+0.3170a_(t-1)+0.3912a(t-2);the annual radial flow of 1988 and 1989 of Harbin Hydrology Station being forecast.
