城市空气污染数值预报系统CAPPS及其应用

CITY AIR POLLUTION NUMERICAL PREDICTION SYSTEM AND ITS APPLICATION

城市空气污染数值预报系统CAPPS ,是在ADPIC的概念的基础上经过积分求得的大气平流扩散的多尺度箱格预报模型。它不需要污染源的源强资料就可预报出城市空气污染潜势指数 (PPI)和污染指数 (API) ,克服了由污染源调查本身具有的不确定性给城市空气污染的数值预报所带来的困难。该文对CAPPS系统在北京市和上海市进行数值预报的结果进行了分析检验 ,并与国际上几种光化学污染预报模式的预报结果进行比较。结果表明 ,就预报值与监测值的线性相关系数来说 ,CAPPS系统的预报水平与其他发达国家的模式预报水平相当。此外 ,CAPPS系统的污染指数等级预报准确率 (北京市和上海市 )平均达到61 .5%。

The City Air Pollution Numerical Prediction System (CAPPS) consists of MM5 (or MM4) and the multi scale grid box model based on the integral of the atmospheric advective dispersion equation. The system has been used for predicting the Pollution Potential Index (PPI) and Air Pollution Index(API) in the urban areas without inventory data of sources. In the field of urban air pollution numerical prediction, CAPPS has overcome the difficulty brought by the inherent indefiniteness in the urban inventory of emissions. In this paper, CAPPS is applied to the air guality prediction experiments in Beijing and Shanghai and the results from these experiments are verified and compared with those from several photochemical air pollution models cited from publications. The comparison shows that the prediction accuracy of CAPPS is as good as most sophisticated photochemical models according to the correlation coefficients between the forecasted and the observed. Furthermore, the averaged prediction accuracy of pollution level has reached 61.5% in Beijing and Shanghai.