疏勒河出山径流量变化特征及趋势分析

The Change Characteristics and the Trend Prediction of Streamflow at the Debouchure of Shulehe River

根据疏勒河出山径流量代表站—昌马堡水文站及相邻气象台站的观测资料 ,采用滑动平均、逐步回归和频谱分析等方法 ,对疏勒河出山径流量年际动态变化特征进行了分析研究。并在此基础上对其未来变化的趋势进行了预测。

Located in the western part of Hexi Corridor, Gansu Province, Shulehe River is the second large river in this inland arid area, and its mainstream is longer than 780km, Changmapu Hgdrometric Station is located at the debouchure of the river, and the catchment area upstream is 1.16×10 4km 2. According to the statistical data of the station and some related hydrometeorological stations from 1952 to 1999, the annual runoff volume of the river is 8.644×10 8m 3. The interannual change characteristics of the streamflow flowing out of the debouchure of Shulehe River are analyzed with the methods of polybasic regression, smoothed average and hierarchy analysis. The results show that the streamflow flowing out of the debouchure of the river experienced 3 low water periods, 4 high water periods and 2 high low water frequent alternative periods from the 1950's to the 1990's. If a decade is regarded as a representative period, the 1950's and the 1960's, the 1970's and the 1990's, and the 1980's were the low, normal, and high water periods respectively. The streamflow flowing out of the debouchure of Shulehe River changed in periods of 2～3, 6～8, 11～12 and 22～23 years, especially the periods of 6, 11 and 3 years. The calculated results show that the streamflow flowing out of the debouchure of the river will increase slowing in some years in the 21st century.