评美俄第二阶段削减战略武器条约

ON THE SECOND STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATY (START Ⅱ) SIGNED BY THE UNITED STATES AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

美俄之所以签署 STARTⅡ条约,大幅度削减核武器是冷战结束的必然结果。双方急于签署此条约也各有其政治上需要:美迫切需要抓住当前时机签约,以削弱俄的核力量,同时希望利用条约对乌克兰等施加压力;俄则希望确保“第二核大国”的地位,同时以外促内,改善政府形象和稳定国内局势。与 STARTⅠ条约相比,STARTⅡ条约确实前进了一大步。STARTⅡ条约规定的削减幅度较大,但美俄仍保留了与冷战后形势很不相称的庞大核武库,仍有能力推行它们原来的核威慑战略。条约没有规定严格的核武器销毁措施,存在潜在的可逆转性。削减不对等,确定了美对俄的核优势。而且,条约的实施尚有不少障碍,结果如何,有待观察。

As a natural outcome after the end of the Cold War,the United States and the Russian Federationhave signed the START Ⅱ treaty to drastically cut their nuclear arsenals.Both sides' eager-ness to sign the treaty is out of their own political needs:The US intends to grasp the oppor-tunity to weaken Russia's nuclear forces and at the same time exert pressure on Ukraine andother CIS nuclear republics while Russia tries to maintain its status as the second largest nu-clear power,and at the same time improve the image of its government and stabilize the do-mestic situation with a major score in the diplomatic arena.In comparison with the START Ⅰ treaty,the START Ⅱ treaty is indeed a big step for-ward for it requires reductions on a larger scale.However,both sides still retain huge nucle-ar arsenals incompatible with the post-Cold War situation and are still capable of pursuingthe traditional strategy of nuclear deterrence.The treaty has no provisions for strict mea-sures to destroy nuclear weapons.The tty,therefore,is potentially reversible.Unequalcuts will result in the US superiority over Russia.Moreover,obstacles remain to the imple-mentation of the treaty.It remains to be seen how things will go.