车速的时间序列分析模型

Time-series Model for Vehicle Speeds

基于高阶统计量方法 ,建立连续车流地点车速的时间序列分析模型。由于高阶累积量方法能够处理非高斯、非最小相位、非因果的时序数据 ,故由其辨识的时序模型具有更广泛的适用性。此外 ,连续车流地点车速具有非独立性特征 ,时间序列模型在相当大程度上蕴含了这些信息。仿真算例是成功的 ,实例计算与实际是一致的 。

Based on high order statistics (HOS) method, a time series model for the spot speeds of successive vehicles on a road section is developed.The advantages of using high order cumutative value are examined with non GAUSSIAN,non causal,non minimum phase data of spot speeds,so the model which based on high order cumutative value can be utilized widely.The model contains valuable information on the extent of existing dependency between the speeds of successive vehicles.The results calculated by this methods agree well with actual data,which shows this methods are correct and effective to analyze the spot speeds of successive vehicle.