基于非集计模型的城市铁路线路客流量预测研究

Passenger Flow Forecast of Urban Railway Line Based on Multi-logit Model

首先通过比较中国和世界上有代表性的几座大城市交通设施建设情况 ,提出在中国特大城市建设立体交通体系的必要性。然后 ,给出规划立体交通体系的技术方法 ,即利用个人出行调查数据和实测数据、预测各种出行目的的交通方式交通量的技术方法。还以日本大阪市港区——南港城市轨道线路为例 ,进行实例介绍。采用非集计模型进行了交通方式划分 ,并且利用个人出行调查数据拟合模型中的参数。在城市铁路线路交通量分配中 ,仍然采用了非集计模型 ,预测出了铁路各站的客流量 。

Necessity of multi modal system construction in Chinese very big city through comparing Beijing and Shanghai with main big city of other country is proposed.A technique of multi modal system planning is given, such as forecast technique of each modal and trip purpose flow based on person trip survey data and other survey data.The technique is introduced with a project of Japan. The disaggregate model is used to split OD(Origin and Destination) traffic flow,and it also will be used to assign railway OD traffic flow to railway network.