上海市区乳腺癌流行现状及趋势分析

The Status and Trend of Breast Cancer Incidence in Shanghai.

目的：分析１９７２～１９９９年上海市区女性乳腺癌发病情况，并据此预测今后２０年上海市乳腺癌的发病趋势，为确定乳腺癌的研究方向和制定防治策略提供依据。方法：收集上海市肿瘤登记资料中乳腺癌发病历史资料，计算发病率和标化发病率，采用线性回归方程拟合分析发病率的变化趋势，结合人口学资料预测未来２０年发病情况。结果：上海市区女性乳腺癌发病率呈明显上升趋势，１９９９年比１９７２年上升了１８０．３０％，２５岁以上各年龄组女性的发病率均呈明显上升趋势，４５～５９岁组女性上升速度最快。乳腺癌发病率在地区分布上呈现从城区向郊县由高向低分布的态势。人口学预测结果推算，到２０１５年全市乳腺癌新发病人将超过６０００例。分析结果提示乳腺癌上升趋势可能与相关危险因素变化有关。

Objective: To search for the pattern and trend of incidence of breast cancer in 1972-1999 in Shang- hai, and highlight the continuing need for research on cancer prevention. Methods: The data were col- lected from the 'Shanghai cancer registration system'. Linear regression was used to predict the epi- demiologic status of breast cancer in the coming 20 years. Results: The observed morbidity in 1999 in- creased 180% than that in 1975. The morbidity of all the age group above 25-year-old rose significantly. The rate of 45-59 age group rose most rapidly. The incidence in urban was high than that in rural dis- trict. With the demographic change, the new cases of breast cancer in Shanghai will be over 6000 in 2015. The increasing trend in breast cancer incidence may be associated with the changes of risk fa- ctors.