灰秩序统计量模型及其在短期气候预测中的应用

Grey Rank Variate Model and Its Application in Short Term Climate Prediction

针对灰色系统模型在处理波动较大的序列方面存在的不足 ,提出灰秩序统计量模型 ,应用此模型对云南省 14个测站的 5月雨量进行了拟合及预报 .结果表明 ,此模型不仅具有较高的拟合及预报精度 ,同时还具有良好的稳定性 .

To overcome the defect that the classical grey system model exists lager error in simulating the nonsteady series,a new grey rank variate model is intro duced.Use the new model simulate and predict the May rainfall of 14 observatories of Yunnan province.The results show that the new model has higher accurcy in simulating and predicting nonsteady series,and has better steady feature.