盛夏OLR月距平对TC登陆和影响华南的预报研究

USE OF MONTHLY MEAN OLR DEPARTURE IN INVESTIGATING THE LANDING OF TC AND ITS IMPACT ON THE SOUTHERN CHINA IN SUMMER

利用OLR资料,对近20年(1975～1994年)热带气旋(TC)在华南地区的登陆和活动进行了分析研究。研究结果表明:OLR月平均距平场的变化与TC在华南地区的活动具有一定的遥相关关系;利用OLR月平均距平场可以进行华南地区多TC影响月和无TC影响月的短期气侯预测;华南地区TC的活动与OLR月平均距平之间的关系在一定程度上取决于西北太平洋副热带高压的气候位置。

By using 20-year monthly mean Outgoing Longwave Radiation(OLR) data (1975～1994) observed by NOAA satellites, the frequency of the tropical cyclone(TC) landing and impacting on the meteorological field of southern China are investigated. The results show: (1) There are some teleconnection relations between the changes of the monthly mean OLR departure and the impact of the TC in southern China; (2) By using the monthly mean OLR departure, mid-and long-term forecasts about more tropical cyclones (MTC) months or no tropical cyclones (NTC) months in southern China could be made. (3) The relations between the activity of TC in southern China and the monthly mean OLR departure depend on the climatic location of the subtropical high over northwest Pacific.