从九十年代西方经济形势看海峡两岸经济关系

Looking Ahead the Economic Relations across the Strait against the Western Economic Prospect in the 1990s

90年代,西方经济将呈现低速增长趋势;世界贸易进一步扩大;经济区域化或集团化的趋向进一步发展,从而促进经贸合作,但各区域集团对外部世界的各种保护主义可能加强;国际资本的主要流向仍将继续是欧美发达地区;将形成一个“政治四极”和“经济四极”构成的“多极”世界格局。近几年内,中国有较大可能争取到的资本主要是日本、南朝鲜、台湾和香港等亚洲国家和地区;而中国劳动成本低廉,又是这些国家和地区转移劳动密集型产业的理想地方。中国应实行“政治与经济分开”的政策,以排除在亚太地区开拓经济合作机会的各种政治障碍。

In 1990s. the Western economy tends to grow in slow speed; world trade will further increase but protectionism berween regional trade blocs and outside world would be height-ened; the flow of international capital will still, in the main, go to European and American developed areas; therefore. a 'multiple polar' world situation will take place, formed by 'po-litical quadri-polars' and 'economic quadri-polars'. In recent years China is likely to absorb capital mainly from Asian countries and areas such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hongkong, and China, with its lower cost of labor, in turn, provides an ideal place for them to remove their labor-intemsive industries there. China should implement 'a policy of separation of economy with politics' in order to elimimnate various political obstacles for ex-panding economic cooperations in Asian and Pacific Regions.