近10年来我国沿海海面变化和风暴潮

China Coastal Eustatic Change and Storm Surge in the Past Decade

根据我国沿海近 10 多年来潮位观测数据进行年均过程的统计，同时与有关气象资料和文献进行了联系比照分析。研究结果表明，20 世纪 90 年代以来我国沿海海面持续波动上升，其年均值与 70 年代中期至 80 年代中期比较平均偏高 1.2～6.4 cm，有些海区个别年份偏高值达 7.0～8.0 cm，如南海 1999 年偏高 8.5 cm。这 10 多年来我国沿海台风风暴潮发生的平均次数与前期比较虽略有减少（ 由年均 8.0 次减少为年均 6.9 次），但强度增大。其中 47 个站次观测到破历史记录的高水位，三个站次出现 1 000 a一遇的高水位。灾害损失巨大。地学中的“ 海面变化 ”，自器测时代以来是由各地验潮站水位测量的年均值取得的。显然，这是一种相对变化，它只有消除各地地质运动（ 如新构造运动，地基升降等 ）影响因子后才具有广泛的水动型时空对比意义。本文根据实测水位数据统计所得的成果，进而与同时空的气象资料相比照，分析认为，近 10 多年来我国沿海海平面与 1975～1986 年期间比较有普遍较大幅度的升高现象，除个别站位需考虑陆动型因素影响外，这与同时期发生在我国沿海的风暴增水过程的增强不无关系，因为风暴增水过程含括在各年水位均值变化（ 即地学意义上的海面变化 ）的统计中。

Based on the tidal level observational data in China's coastal area in the past decade, the paper makes statistics of the annual mean processes and correlates them with the relevant meteorological data and literature for comparison and analysis. The results show that since the 1990s China's coastal sea surface has been fluctuating and rising continuously and its annual mean value is 1.2～6.4 cm higher than that between the mid-1970s and the mid-1980s on an average, up to 7.0～8.0 cm in some sea areas in individual years, for instance, 8.5 cm higher in the South China Sea in 1999. Although the average frequency of China's coastal storm surges in the past ten-odd years has slightly reduced ( from 8.0 times to 6.9 times on an annual average ), the intensity has increased. The record-breaking high water level has been observed for 47 station-times and the high water level with a return period of millennium has occurred for 3 station-time. The damage caused by storm surges has been huge. The“eustatic change”in geoscience has been obtained from the annual mean values of water level measurement in the tidal gauge stations of various localities since the era of instrumental measurement. Obviously, this is a relative change, which would be of extensive significance for eustatic space-time comparison only when the influence factors of geological movement ( e.g. neotectonism, base elevation and subsidence ) in various areas have been removed. Based on the statistical results of the observed data of water level and comparison with and analysis of the meteorological data of the same space-time, the paper suggests that in the past ten-odd years China's coastal sea surface has generally risen by a big margin as compared with that in the previous period. Except in individual stations where the effect of terrestrial factors should be considered, this has something to do with the enhancement of storm surge set-up processes in China's coastal area in this period for the set-up processes of storm surge are included in the statistics of the change in the water level means of every year ( i.e, the eustatic change in the sense of geoscience).