多元概率分析方法在海洋工程中的应用现状

Present status of applying multivariate probability analysis to ocean engineering

介绍了近十余年来国际海岸、近海工程中综合考虑多项环境因素共同作用 ,取代逐项分别考虑 ,并由一般联合概率发展到多元极值分布的最新研究成果 ,可适用于工程可靠度、设计标准和失效概率计算。主要包括联合概率法、变量构造法及多元极值理论等。在阐明理论计算步骤的同时对各种方法进行比较 ,有利于工程技术人员便捷掌握。

This article introduces some methods to deal with the interaction of multivariate environment factors in the ocean engineering instead of simply considering each factor. These methods, including joint probability methods, structure′s variable methods, multivariate extreme value theory and its model selection, can be applied to the calculation of reliability, design standards and failure region.