摘要
本文针对实际负荷预测工作的复杂性 ,提出了运用模糊语言评价对最优组合预测中各模型权重确定的新方法。文中考虑了预测模型的多个评价因素 ,利用模糊语言进行二级综合评优 ,并对各预测模型的评优结果进行了比较 ,分析了模型之间的优势关系 ,进而确定各模型的权重。最后 ,文中利用该方法对江苏盐城市 2 0 0 2年负荷水平进行了预测 。
According to the complexity of load forecasting, the thesis presents a new method to determine the weight coefficients of each model involved in the combined forecast method. Considering several evaluating factors, a two step comprehensive evaluation is executed using fuzzy language. The results of each forecast model are compared and so come out the advantage relationships between every two models, therefor, the weight coefficient of each model is determined. At the end, a satisfying result is reached about the load level of Yancheng City in 2002 by using this method.
出处
《电力系统及其自动化学报》
CSCD
2001年第4期8-11,共4页
Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA
