财政政策与经济增长的实证分析——我国的财政政策乘数和效应测算

Positive Analysis on Financial Policies and Economic Growth

由一个简单的IS -LM模型可以推导出财政政策乘数公式。对于我国的IS -LM曲线的估计 ,发现它们有正常的斜率。我国的财政政策乘数约等于 2 ,可测算出我国历年财政调控的效应 ,发现财政政策对经济增长的贡献份额占 1/ 5到1/ 3强 ,表明我国财政政策在需求管理中的有效性。根据以上所述 。

From the simple IS-LM Model, We can get a multiplier formula of financial policies. After predicting IS-LM curve in China, we can find that they have a normal sloping rate. The number is roughly equal to 2, from which we can work out the effect of the previous financial adjustment. The contribution of financial policies to economic growth is from one fifth to one third, which shows the function of financial policies in demand management in China. Based on the analysis, the paper suggests some policies to expand demand and to stimulate economic growth.