黄渤海一种北强风的完全预报方法

FORECAST OF THE STRONG NORTHLY MINDS OVER THE YELLOW SEA AND BOHAI SEA

低槽绕涡旋转型(简称旋转型),是冬半年造成黄渤海地区北强风(≥8级)最常见最重要的灾害性天气之一。此类强风过程是在中高纬度地区特定环流形势下产生的。本文所拍的旋转型,系指极地经向南落的极涡或新地岛东南下的冷性低涡移入西伯利亚后,涡旋西侧有槽旋转东南下,并在高原槽接应下,冷空气从北路径侵入黄渤海地区造成强风。为了建立客观定量的预报方法,用700hpa天气图确定分型条件,诊断分析与强风关系密切的因子场,结合预报员经验,确定出北强风预报因子。采用PP法,用多元逐步回归建立天气动力统计的黄渤海北强风预报方程。

This paper describes a procedure to forecast the strong northly winds over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea in Winter. In order to set up an objective forecasting method, the 700 hpa weather chart is used to identify the weather type. The factors typically associated with the winds are determined and the forecasting equationsare derived with the PP method and the multwariate progressive regression.