正确评价预测建立在正、反向思维的结合点上

CORRECT EVALUATION AND PREDICTION BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF POSITIVE AND REVERSE THINKING

作者经 40多年的勘探实践 ,深感正确评价预测必须建立在正、反向思维的结合点上。只注意按烃源找气的简单正向思维而忽略天然气活动的一面 ,曾导致对浅层油气的迟钝和失误。由川西坳陷曲折的勘查经历和深刻反思 ,使我们逐步掌握了超致密化区气藏独特的规律 ,并在对我国主要油气区评价中较准确地预测了塔河古生界油田和鄂尔多斯C -P深盆气等。根据充分资料按常规用正向思维进行油气预测是必需的 ,思维度越深 ,评价预测功能越强。但直线型正向思维经常会碰壁 ,因为收集到的资料对深部油气仍然是零星断缺的 ,用正向思维连接起来 ,可能是某一角度的影象甚至假象。而用心解析、假设、反证、模拟 ,或用成功模式类比 ,多用反向思维方式 ,则更能逼近真实。

More than 40 years of anthor's exploration practice reveals that correct evaluation and prediction must be based on the combination of positive and reverse thinking. Simple positire thinking, which stresses to look for gas according to hydrocarbon sources and neglects natural gas activities, once resulted in slow reacting and faults on shallow hydrocarbon. From tortuous exploration experience and deep introspection of the west Sichuan Depression, the unique regularities of gas pools in ultra dense areas are mastered step by step, and the paleozoic Tahe oilfield and the C P ordos deep basin gas are predicted accurately during the evaluation of oil and gas areas in China. It is essential to make hydrocarbon prediction on the basis of ample data and using conventional positive thinking. The deeper the thinking is, the strorger the evaluation and prediction function are. Line type positive thinking often runs into a stone wall, because the collected data for deep hydrocarbon are still odd scraps and discontinuous. If they are linked up by positive thinking, they may be images from some angle even false appearances. And if using analysis, hypothesis, disproof and simulation carefully or using the correlation to succeed models as well as often using the way of reverse thinking, they can be even more approaching to reality.