广州城镇失业根源的理论假设和计量模型分析

The Theoretic Assumption and Econometric Analysis on Rootstocks of Unemployment in Guangzhou

根据西方和我国的失业根源理论 ,选定与广州市失业根源问题关联度最大、解释力最强的6个指标作为自变量进行计量模型分析。根据1984年以来与失业率相关的若干组变量 ,建立了拟合程度较好的对数模型 ,进行非线性的对数模型分析发现 ,广州市城镇失业率与GDP同向增加 ,随职工货币工资的增加而减少 ,随劳动力需求的增加而下降 ,而固定资产投资的增加对就业的带动作用有限。

According to the western as well as the domestic unemployment theories, the paper selects 6 indexes, which are most closely connected with and have the most explaining power to the unemployment problems of Guangzhou, as the independent variable to make the econometric analysis. Using the data since 1984, the paper sets up a logarithm model that is fitting well. From the non-linear logarithm analysis, the paper finds that, the urban unemployment rate of Guangzhou increases simultaneously with the increase of the GDP growth, but decreases with the increase of the nominal wages of worker and the demand of labor. The paper also finds that the driving power of fixed capital investment to the unemployment is limited.