基于随机参数敏感性分析的焊接结构断裂失效概率估算

Assessing Fracture Probability of Welded Structure by Random Sensitivity Parameter Analysis

首先通过参数敏感性分析选定随机变量 ,再用蒙特卡洛法计算焊接结构断裂失效概率 ;又采用了对偶变量蒙特卡洛法、JC方法、蒙特卡洛方法计算焊接结构断裂失效概率 ,并比较和讨论了这些结果 .由计算结果可看出 ,进行敏感性指标分析后再进行蒙特卡洛法计算 ,既具有足够的精度 ,又可以节省大量的计算时间 .

After random variables have been determined on the based of random sensitivity parameter analysis, the fracture probability of welded structure can be calculation by using Monte Carlo method. The fracture probability was calculated also by using of Monte Carlo method of dual variable, method of JC and Monte Carlo method. The calculation results were compared and discussed. From the result, it can be seen that not only enough precision can be reached but also much time can be saved using Monte Carlo method after its sensitivity parameter analysis.