中国股票市场供求关系研究

A Research into the Supply-demand Relations in China's Securities Market

中国证券市场的资产证券化率已达到 5 4 % ,但由于流通股本所占比重较小 ,资产证券化率存在着很大的股权结构泡沫 ,因此未来证券市场在总市值继续增长的基础上 ,在解决部分国有股、法人股流通的基础上 ,流通市值的增幅要远高于总市值的增幅 ,本文以整个证券市场持续双向扩容为前提 ,从一级市场和二级市场两个大的方面分析了影响股市供求状况的因素 ,并对资金供求与市场涨跌之间作了相关性分析。

The rate for assets becoming marketable securities in China has reached 54%. But due to the small portion of the negotiable capital stock, there is, in the rate, much froth in stock equity structure. Therefore, in line with the sustained increase of the total marketable value on the future securities market, and with the solution to the circulation of some state shares and legal body shares, the increase range of circulating marketable value will be much wider than that of the total marketable value. With the sustained two way capacity expansion as the premise, this essay discusses the factors influencing the supply-demand on a stock market in two aspects of first-class and second-class markets, and makes a relative analysis on the relation between capital supply and demand, and between the rise and fall of market prices.