基于GPS同步量测量的时间序列法暂态稳定预测

Transient Stability Prediction Using Time-Series Based on GPS Synchronized Measurement

利用GPS同步时钟获得系统各机组的功角 ,然后由时间序列法进行预测 ,并通过模糊控制器实行在线实时修正 ,进而确定电力系统暂态稳定性。由于所有参数都是根据实时采样数据计算的 ,所以能更准确地反映网络结构、负载变化等真实情况。对 6机 2 2节点的算例表明 ,通过多项式非线性回归和模糊动态修正 ,在适当满足计算速度的条件下提高了预测精度 ,能可靠地判断暂态首摆稳定性。

The generator angle of each unit in a power system is obtained by using GPS synchronized clock, the transient stability is then predicted using time-series method, which is on line corrected by fuzzy controller real timely to determine the power network transient stability. Because all parameters are calculated based on the real time sampling data, they can accurately reflect the rapidly changing network structure and load. The calculation example on 22 nodes of 6 units shows that it can effectively predict the first swing transient stability with a higher predict precision under satisfied calculation speed.