中国建设投资与经济增长关系的计量模型与分析

The Econometrical Model and Analysis on Relationship between Construction Investment and Economic Growth in China

文章对我国建设投资和国民经济之间的关系进行了定量的分析 ,建立了能反映二者之间长期均衡和短期波动关系的误差修正模型 ,从而得到近阶段国民经济增长对我国建设投资的弹性系数 ,反映了建设投资对国民经济增长的贡献水平。从模型分析的结果显示 ,无论是固定资产投资 ,还是建筑安装投资 ,GDP对它们的弹性系数都大大超过它们各自在 GDP中所占的比重。这表明建设投资能够高效率地拉动国民经济的增长 ,是刺激经济活动的重要手段之一。

This article makes a quantitative analysis on the relationship between construction investment and economic growth in China, and develops an econometrical “error correction model” to demonstrate the long term balance and short term fluctuations of them. From this model, the construction investment elasticities of GDP are calculated and it seems that they are all much higher than their shares in GDP. So a conclusion could be drawn that construction investment plays an important role in national economy and can greatly stimulate the increase of GDP.