基于风险分析的项目工期的估算方法研究

Based on Risk-Analysis' Estimating Method of Project's Duration

提出一种方法 ,从分析影响项目工期的风险因素出发 ,确定其分布 ,并确定各风险因素对各活动的影响 ,在此基础上确定项目工期 ,通过多次模拟确定项目工期的概率图 ,最后确定项目工期的分布和期望。该方法比传统的 PERT方法有了更大的改善。该方法还可以方便地判断出各风险因素所起的作用的大小 ,为控制项目主要风险提供了一种科学的方法。

This paper presents a estimating method of project's duration. It analyzes risk factors that effect project's duration firstly, then determined their distribution and effects on every activities, based on that, It calculates duration of project. By use of numberless simulation, we can sates project's duration's probability graph and expect duration.This way's accuracy is higher than traditional PERT model.It also may conveniently get every factor's affect. This method provides a sciential tool for controlling major risk.