东风萤石公司防尘综合措施经济效益的灰色模型GM(1,1)分析

Grey model GM (1,1) analysis of economic benefit of comprehensive measures of dust prevention in Dongfeng Fluorite Corporation

目的 对防尘措施经济效益的估算提供更合理的方法 ,使分析结果更接近于实际。方法 (1)运用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测由于防尘而减少的尘肺发病人数和尘肺患者死亡数。 (2 )GM(1,1)的预测用EXCEL自编程序。结果 浙江东风萤石公司 196 5～ 1982年 18年内由防尘而幸免尘肺发病人数 948例、幸免尘肺死亡数 436例 ;节约尘肺患者退养工资 38.39万元 ;节约医疗抢救费 2 5 .41万元 ;节约死亡抚恤费 2 3.0 6万元 ;创造产值 6 6 3.6万元。由防尘而取得的经济效益的投入与产出之比为 1∶3.0 4。结论 用GM(1,1)模型来估算由防尘而幸免的尘肺发病人数和尘肺患者死亡数的可靠性和有效性较好 (C值分别为 0 .44和 0 .18)

Objectives To provide the rational method in estimating economic benefit of measures of dust prevention,to make the results of analysis approach the reality. Methods (1)To forecast pneumoconiosis patient number and pneumoconiosis patient death number reduced owing to dust prevention with grey dynamics model,GM(1,1).Forecast of GM (1,1) apply the EXCEL program written by myself. Results During a period of 18 years(1965～1982),owing to the installment of dust preventing device in Zhejiang Dongfeng Fluorite Corp,satisfactory results were achieved as follows:948 workers luckly escaped pneumoconiosis and 436 cases survived the disease.And 0.383 9 million yuan for pneumoconiosis patient recuperate wages,0.254 1 million yuan for medical expenses,0.230 6 million yuan for compensatingbereaved families expenses were saved and in turn,an output value of 0.663 6 million yuan was created.The ratio between capital investment and production output was 1∶3.04. Conclusions The reliability and the validity is quite good that number of pneumoconiosis patient and the dead of pneumoconiosis escaped by sheer luck owing to dust prevention are calculated roughly by GM (1,1). C =0.44 and 0.18 respectively.