水电工程建设伤亡事故宏观预测模型及其应用

CASUALTY ACCIDENT FORECAST MODEL OF HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT AND ITS APPLICATION

根据水电工程建设过程的特点 ,运用现代控制理论和系统辨识小子样建模新技术以及现代统计信息技术 ,建立了伤亡事故预测数学模型。此模型不仅可以用于水电工程建设过程的安全预测 。

According to the characteristics of the hydroelectric project, using the principles of modern control theory and advanced technology of establishing model on the small samples as well as the modern statistic information technology, a mathematical model for casualty accident forecast is established in the present paper. The model may be used not only in the accident forecast but also in the quantitative management of the hazard control. It is considered to be an important tool for advanced safety management in hydroelectric project construction. The characteristics of the hydroelectric project is presented and it is shown that such safety systems are large scale man machine systems including equipment, resource, materials and operators as well as management staff. The following fundamentals should be abided by establishing the model: (1) the mutual relation among the main factors of the safe systems should be reflected; (2) the mathematical model should have physical and logical meaning and the absurdity should be avioded; (3) the mathematical model should supply the information to modify the operational state of systems. Injury and death number X is selected as output variable in the model. According to the characteristics of hydroelectric project, the project indexes per year are considered as input variables. Because it is difficult to collect the sample data, the amount of the clod and stone T , the irrigating amount of the concrete H and the installation of the metal frame J are applied as the project indexes.In terms of these project indexes,a mathematical model is derived (Eqn.(4)). Based on the experience in establishing the model and by using factor analysis technology of modern statistic data analysis, the problem of multicollinearity can be solved. By applying linear regression as well as Kalman filter of the modern control theory,the iterative method called FLKL (Factor analysis Linear regression Kalman filter Linear regression)is established. This method can perfectly be used to solve the big noise problem during establishing the model.The mathematical form using the iterative method is also obtained (Eqn.(6)).A comparison between forecasted values and practical values is illustrated(Fig.1).Based on the initial design of a hydroelectric project, the injury and death numbers X its construction between 1997-2008 are estimated(Table 2).