多目标动态投入产出优化模型应用研究

Research on application of multi-objective and dynamic input-output optimization model

针对某市研究制定“十五”规划的需要 ,根据该市经济社会发展的实际 ,以 1 997年投入产出表为基础 ,建立了一个多目标动态投入产出优化模型 .该模型包括经济增长、综合经济平衡等 6个目标函数 ,以及动态投入产出等 5类约束 ,采用目标规划法进行求解 ,给出了该市1 998～ 2 0 0 5年 GDP、三次产出增加值、各部门增加值等主要经济指标的预测结果 .该结果与用人工神经网络方法得到的结果基本相同 ,比较符合该市的实际情况 ,已被有关部门采用 .

A multi objective and dynamic input output programming is built according to the social and economic situation of a city on the basis of the input output table of the city in 1997. In order to satisfy the needs of making ″the Tenth Five Year Plan″ of the city, the objectives of the model including economic growth, economic balance, etc, and its main constrictions are dynamic input output equations. Using the method of goal programming, the predicted results of GDP, the increased value of industries and sectors are given. The forecast results are in agreement with the results from artificial neural networks, and are adopted by the departments concerned.