模糊信息下的不确定性决策问题

Uncertain Decision Making under Fuzzy Information

讨论了一类具有模糊概率和模糊属性评价值的不确定性决策问题 .分析了模糊概率评价的一致性 ,给出了一种在模糊信息下求各策略模糊期望值的方法 ,并通过对各模糊期望值的比较来确定最优策略 .最后 ,给出了一个数值计算的例子 ,结果表明 ,方法简单、合理 ,易于实现 ,具有实际应用价值 .

This paper investigates a type of uncertain decision making problems with fuzzy probability and fuzzy payoff assessment. The consistency of the probability assessment is considered. A method for obtaining to expected fuzzy payoff of strategy in the face of fuzzy information is proposed. And the optimal strategy is determined by comparing the expected fuzzy payoffs. At last, an numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed method. The result shows the approach is simple, reasonable and easy to implement.