我国出口与经济增长关系分析

The Empirical Researches on the Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in China

采用协整检验和 Ｇｒａｎｇｅｒ－ｃａｕｓａｌｉｔｙ检验方法，对中国改革开放以来（１９７８—１９９８）的出口与经济增长关系进行了实证分析。结果表明，初级产品出口与 ＧＤＰ之间存在唯一的协整关系，而总体出口与 ＧＤＰ、工业制成品出口与ＧＤＰ之间不协整；总体出口增长和初级产品出口增长与经济增长之问存在单向的Ｇｒａｎｇｅｒ因果关系，而工业制成品出口增长与经济增长之间没有 Ｇｒａｎｇｅｒ因果关系。

The relationships between the exports and economic growth of China in the reform period (1978 to 1998) are tested by using approaches of Johansen's cointegration test and Granger-causality test. It is found that the primary product exports and GDP cointegrate, but total exports and GDP.manufac- tured exports and GDP do not cointegrate; There is a unidirectional Granger-Causality from total exports and primary product exports expansion to economic growth, but manufactured exports expansion and eco- nomic growth do notshow Granger-causality.