安徽省10种传染病季节性分布的分析

Analysis of Seasonal Distribution of 10 Communicable Diseases in Anhui Province

目的 运用向量合成法———集中度和圆形分布法对安徽省 41年间 1 0种法定传染病的季节性分布进行分析。方法 按推行计划免疫前 (1 958— 1 978)、后 (1 979— 1 998)二个不同阶段分别计算集中度M值和圆形分布R值。结果乙脑的M、R值大于 0 .9,流脑M、R值在 0 .7— 0 .9之间 ,痢疾M、R值在 0 .5— 0 .7之间 ,白喉、麻疹、伤寒的M、R值在 0 .3— 0 .5之间 ,其余四种传染病脊灰、肝炎、百日咳、猩红热的M、R值在 0 .3以下。结论 ① .乙脑有严格的季节性 ,流脑有很强的季节性 ,痢疾有较强的季节性 ,白喉、麻疹、伤寒有一定的季节性 ,脊灰、肝炎、百日咳、猩红热等在 1 2个月中分布比较均匀。② .推行计划免疫后 ,除肝炎发病率略有上升外 ,其余 9种传染病的发病率均大幅度下降 ,但每一种疾病的发病季节性在两个阶段内均未发生变化。③ .1 0种传染病的发病高峰时点除白喉、百日咳、猩红热变化外 ,其余

Objective: The seasonal distributions of ten legal communicable diseases from 1958 to 1998 were analyzed by the method of concentrated extent and circle distribution. Method: M concentrated extent and R circle distribution were calculated according to two different phrases, before (1958-1978) and after (1979-1998) the implementation of expanded Program on Immunization (EPI). Results: M and R of encephalitis B were more than 0.9; that of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis and dysentery were 0.7-0.9; that of diphtheria, measles, typhoid were 0.3-0.5; that of poliomyelitis, hepatitis, whooping cough and scarlet fever were less than 0.3. Conclusions: 1.Encephalitis B is a disease with strict seasonal characteristic; epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, dysentery, diphtheria, measles and typhoid fever are diseases with relative strict seasonal characteristic; poliomyelitis, hepatitis, whooping cough and scarlet fever are disease without seasonal characteristic. 2.After implementation of EPI, the incidence of 9 communicable diseases decreased remarkably except hepatitis. 3.The incidence peaks of the diseases in two different phrases are basically concordant except that of diphtheria, whooping cough and scarlet fever, which are ahead of the peaks in the first phrase.