中国轿车市场需求短期预测及模型选择

Shout-Term Forecast and Model Selection for China Car Market Demand

由于我国经济增长速度较快，经济增长波动较大，与国家宏观调控政策密切相关，因此增大了预测难度。１９９４－１９９５年，我国汽车市场完成由卖方市场向买方市场转变后，市场需求的结构发生了变化，需求的增长主要受到出租车及私家车需求的双重拉动。目前私家车市场仍处于积蓄力量阶段，其放量增长可以预见，但却无法准确地预期。正是由于私家车市场这个最大的变量难以预测，我们在预测需求时，应以１－２年的短期预测为主，在模型选择时应关注未来轿车市场需求的非线性趋势。

The forecast difficulty has been increased due to the faster speed in economic growth in our country, the larger fluctuation in economic growth and the close relationship with our state macro-control policies. In 1994 and 1995, after the transition from seller's market to buyer's market had been realized in automotive market in our country, the market demand structure has been changed and the demand growth is pulled by both taxi vehicle demand and private family car demand. At pre- sent, the private family car market is still in the phase of its strength accumulation and the potential increase may be foreseen but can not forecast exactly. It is just difficult to forecast the private family car market, i. e. it is the max. variable in automotive mar- ket, the forecast emphasis should be placed in the short-term forecast for 1-2 years when forecasting the demand, the non- linear wt of car market demand in future should be attentioned when selecting the models.