经济学何以预测

How Can Economics Predict

经济学能否预测未来是经济学方法论中的一个重要问题 ,但经济预测的困难在于经济理论与未来的经济发展的明显相关性。在经济学能否预测问题上经济学家存在着截然不同的三种观点 :一种观点认为经济学完全可以与物理学一样 ,是一门科学 ,同样可以预测 ;第二种观点明确否认经济学能够进行预测 ,从而否认经济学的科学性 ;第三种观点承认经济学的科学性 ,但否定经济学精确预测的可能性 。

One of the very important issues in methodology of economics is whether economics can predict the future. The difficulty of economic prediction is the apparent relatedness between economics theory and future economic development. There exist three different viewpoints among economists on economic prediction. One view believes that, as physics does, economics, a science, can predict the future; another idea denies the ability of prediction, thus repudiating the scientific attribute of economics; the last view recognizes the scientific attribute of economics but negates possibility of accurate prediction by economics, although it does not exclude the possibility that economics may forecast a certain macro trend of economic system.