黄河流域可供水量究竟有多少?

Analysis on the water supply capacity of the Yellow River Drainage Basin

摘要:黄河是我国水资源最紧张的河流之一,但关于黄河流域可供水量,几个很权威的文献却差别很大,高的达到692×108m3,低的低到580×108m3。而20世纪90年代又出现了黄河流域天然径流大为减少的情况,平水年份下河川天然径流量比多年平均减少110×108m3。所以,黄河流域的可供水量究竟有多少是急迫需要弄清的问题,因为它关系到黄河流域的水资源可持续利用战略决策。论文的研究结论是:在2010年水平年,在平水年条件下,黄河流域的可供水量只有550×108～560×108m3,其中地表水390×108～400×108m3,地下水160×108m3。所以,黄河流域的可供水量比原来估算的最低数580×108m3还低20×108～30×108m3,而比原来估计的最高数692×108m3要低20%,差140×108m3。这就给黄河流域的水资源供需平衡对策提出了更严峻的问题。

Yellow River is one of the rivers with scarce water resources.There are a few impor-tant research results about the water supply capacity in2010,but the estimated amount of water supply differs greatly.The highest is69.2billion m 3 while the lowest,58billion m 3 .Furthermore,the substantial drop of the natural runoff occurred in the1990s.As a result,the runoff amount in a mean hydrological year is11billion m 3 less than that of the his toric mean year level.Therefore it is very urgent to make it clear that how much the water supply would be in the2010in the Yellow River since it concerns the sustainable utilization strategy of water resource in the Yellow River drainage basin.The research result of this paper shows that the water supply in2010is only55～56billion m 3 in a mean hydrological year,among which surface runoff accounts for39～40billion m 3 and groundwater takes another16billion m 3 .This result is2～3billion m 3 less than the58billion m 3 ,which is the least figure of the aforementioned results,and is20%,or14bil-lion m 3 less than the largest69.2billion m 3 .This poses an even more serious question to the wa-ter demand-supply balance strategy.