用地温预报雨季降水趋势的初步探讨

A Preliminary Study of Forecasting of Precipitation Trend in Rainy Season in Terms of Soil Temperature

利用相关系数及逐步回归的计算方法 ,研究了地温与降水的关系 ,并建立昆明周围地区 (包括西藏一些地区 ) 3个地温层 ( 0 .8,1.6,3 .2m)对昆明降水的月预报方程 .给出了月降水的拟合效果图和 1992年、1993年各月昆明降水的预报 .最终形成昆明地区《地温预报汛期降水系统》软件包投入试运行 .

The relationship between precipitation and soil temperature is searched for with the method of correlation coefficient and stepwise regression,and the monthly-forecasting equation of precipitation for Kunming is established in terms of the three soil temperature layers (0.8?m,1.6?m,3.2?m) in Kunming region and some areas of Tibet,and the fitting curves of monthly precipitation and monthly precipitation forecasting of Kunming in 1992-1993 are given,which results in the development of the System of Precipitation Forecasting in the Rainy Season in Terms of Soil Temperature,a software package put into operation tentatively in Kunming area.