气象奇点与云南最大震级预报研究

Meteorological Singularity and Prediction of Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Yunnan Province

根据地震活动与气象要素之间的密切关系 ,采用大量气象资料选取预报因子 ,将气象统计理论应用于地震预报 ,开创了地震预报的数值预报新方法 ,并对中国云南 5个地震分区 ,分上下半年做出了最大震级预报 ,其置信度达到特别显著水平 .这对提高地震预报水平将具有深远意义 .

Baced on the correlation between seismicity and meteorological elements,large volume of meteorological data has been used to select the prediction factor.The statistics theory in meteorology has been applied to earthquake prediction,so that a new method of digital prediction of earthquakes has been developed in this paper.Yunnan Province is divided into five regions and the maximum magnitude of earthquakes in each region is predicted for the first and second half years,whose reliability level is notably high.This method will be significant to promoting of earthquake prediction.