扩大中国汇率浮动区间的设想

A Thought on Extending the Floating Range of Exchange Rate in China

入世后 ,随着中国经济的开放度的增加 ,汇率将在各种经济变量中逐渐居于核心地位。这是因为开放经济中的各种变量的状况最终都将在汇率上得到不同程度的体现 ,而汇率的调整又会对从外部到内部 ,从宏观到微观的各个方面、各个层次对开放经济的运行产生深刻的影响。而我国现行的汇率制度事实上较难适应这种要求 ,主要在于有管理的浮动汇率实际上是固定汇率 ,在国内经济的基本面存在缺陷而又不能在短期内、有实质性的改变的前提下 ,以我国近2千亿美元的外汇储备面对与脱离实体经济运行每天达 2万多亿美元的国际游资 ,根本不能有效保卫这种固定汇率。故应扩大汇率浮动区间 。

s: Under the circumstances that China is going to enter WTO, and economic gate will be gradually opened, exchange rate is the first important core in various economic varieties, because the status of various economic varieties under opening economy will finally be, to different extent, reflected in the exchange rate, and the adjustment of exchange rate will make a notable on the operation of opening economy from macro economy to micro economy in different fields. But our current institution of exchange rate can only hardly be apt to the acquirement in fact. It is mainly that, on the experience of our county, the managed floating exchange rate is, in fact, fixed exchange rate, under the circumstances there are faults which can't be virtually changed in short term(i.e. in 3 5 years, not over 10 years),near 2 thousands of hundred million dollars (U.S.A.) international reserve can't effectively protect the fixed exchange in front of over 2 million dollars (U.S.A).So, floating exchange rate target zone with some wave will substitute for the fixed exchange rate .