危险率函数在地表破裂型地震危险性评估中的应用——以宁夏灵武断裂为例

Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake:Taking Lingwu Faults in Ningxia Region as an example

在对中国北部板内地区的古地震资料拟合、给出时间相依的统计模型基础上 ,利用近期获取的灵武断裂有关资料和危险率函数 ,对灵武断裂未来一定时段的发震潜势和当前地震危险性特征进行了分析 ,认为该断裂已进入发震时段 ,在未来 10～ 10 0年内有发生 7 0～ 7 5级左右地震的潜势。

Based on the fitting on paleo-earthquake data of inner plate region in North Ch ina and giving statistical model which is time interdependent, the potentially d amaging earthquake occurrence in a definite future period and dangerous characte ristics of the present shocks along Lingwu faults have been analyzed by using da ta c oncerned and dangerous probability function of Lingwu faults. We have inferred t hat the faults are coming into a period that earthquakes will probably occur and there will have a potential danger that a strong earthquake with M 7.0～7 5 will occur in 10～100 years.