植物响应气候变化模型模拟研究进展

A Review on Simulating Plant Response to Climatic Changes

尽管温室气体的增温效应及幅度大小具有很大的不确定性 ,存在许多分歧 ,然而植物对于气候变化的响应研究仍然成为众多学者关注的热点。近十年来 ,国内外学者从模型模拟的角度进行了多层面定量研究。归纳起来 ,已有的模型可以归并为生物地理相关模型、生态响应面模型、立地模型、植物生理模型以及统计模型等五类。本文逐一进行了评述 ,分析了它们的优势与不足 ,最后对模型模拟的发展趋势进行了展望。

While current projections of climatic change associated with increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases have a high degree uncertainty, the potential effects of climatic change on plant species and their combined units population, community and vegetation are of increasing concern largely due to their huge economic value and ecological service functions. Many researchers have simulated the climatic effects on plants species or vegetation by using various models last decade. In sum, these models are classified into five groups, namely bioclimatic classification approach, ecological response surface approach, stand model approach, plant physiological models, and statistical model approach. In this paper, the author gives a critical review on advantages and disadvantages of the models, and finally indicates the potential trends of these models. In conclusion, various models should be reformulated with perfect tradeoff between robustness and sensibility. Only when these models reflect more accurately realistic relationships between plant species or vegetation and climatic variables, can they be employed to simulate responses of plant species or vegetation to rapid change in climate.