摘要
将冈贝尔Ⅰ型极值分布应用于矿山地震能量分布规律的研究 ,结合前人的研究成果 ,推导了能量极值分布函数的表达式 ,给出了其参数确定方法。在简要介绍老虎台矿矿山地震活动的构造及物理背景后 ,结合老虎台矿矿震实际 ,介绍了如何将能量极值分布用于强矿山地震事件的预测。结果表明 ,用这种方法预测的月最大矿震能量的概率分布与实际记录的矿震月最大能量分布一致。最后应用该法预测了老虎台矿未来几年内强矿震事件发生的概率。
Gumbel Ⅰ extreme distribution is applied to the study of the distribution of mining tremors' energy. Based on the other reseachers' work, the Gumbel Ⅰ distribution of mining tremors' extreme energy is derivated, and the determination method of the distribution parameters is forwarded. After briefly introducing the tectonic structure and physical background of mining tremors' in Lao Hu-tai coal mine, the application of the distribution in the prediction of strong mining tremors' in Lao Hu-tai coal mine is presented. The result shows that the distribution of prediction probability monthly largest energy is consisted well with the distribution of practical record of monthly largest energy.In the end, the method is used to predict the probability of strong mining tremors in Lao Hu-tai coal mine in the future years.
出处
《东北地震研究》
2001年第3期1-6,共6页
Seismological Research of Northeast China
基金
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助课题 (No 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 2 )
国家自然科学基金资助课题 (No 5 0 0 740 0 2 )
